Research series

Who decides what is true?

Twenty-six connected research articles on authority, evidence, propaganda, institutional learning, uncertainty, and concrete religious and organizational cases. The series separates claims, evidentiary standards, and documented findings and is designed for sequential or standalone reading.

26 articles Completed series

Part 1 / 26

Series sequence

26 articles in reading order

Series chapter

I. Methodological foundation

The first ten articles establish tools for assessing authority, evidence, identity, enemies, institutions, expertise, consensus, and uncertainty.

Part 1 / 26

R360 · Part 1 August 22, 2022 19 min

Who Decides What Is True?

Authority, evidence, belonging, and the psychology of belief

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Part 2 / 26

R361 · Part 2 August 24, 2022 19 min

How Is Reality Shaped?

Agenda-setting, framing, repetition, propaganda, and the boundary between informing and steering

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Part 3 / 26

R362 · Part 3 August 25, 2022 19 min

When Doubt Becomes Identity

Conspiracy theories, real conspiracies, pattern-seeking, and self-sealing explanations of the world

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Part 4 / 26

R363 · Part 4 August 26, 2022 18 min

How Is an Enemy Made?

War propaganda, dehumanization, “atrocity stories,” and the creation of public support for conflict

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Part 5 / 26

R364 · Part 5 August 27, 2022 19 min

When an Institution Cannot Admit Error

Organizational silence, normalization of deviance, whistleblowers, and the difference between legitimate secrecy and concealment of responsibility

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Part 6 / 26

R365 · Part 6 August 28, 2022 17 min

Who Watches the Watchers?

Regulatory capture, the revolving door, conflicts of interest, and the problem of independent oversight

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Part 7 / 26

R366 · Part 7 August 30, 2022 19 min

Who Pays for Expertise?

Research funding, conflicts of interest, industry science, and the boundary between sponsored research and a purchased result

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Part 8 / 26

R367 · Part 8 August 31, 2022 19 min

How Does Expert Consensus Form?

Peer review, replication, meta-analysis, paradigms, minority views, and why consensus is not the same as truth

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Part 9 / 26

R368 · Part 9 September 1, 2022 18 min

What Does “Proven” Actually Mean?

Proof, indications, probability, statistical significance, causation, testimony, and degrees of certainty

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Part 10 / 26

R369 · Part 10 September 2, 2022 19 min

How Do We Live with Uncertainty?

Probability, calibration, decision-making without complete knowledge, and the ability to change our minds

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Series chapter

II. Prophecy and the closed world

Two bridge articles examine what happens when a prediction fails and when a group becomes the primary framework for understanding the world.

When Prophecy Fails: From the Great Disappointment of 1844 to 1914, 1975, and “New Interpretation”

Part 11 / 26

R370 · Part 11 September 3, 2022 11 min

When Prophecy Fails: From the Great Disappointment of 1844 to 1914, 1975, and “New Interpretation”

Why a failed prediction often does not destroy a movement—and how failure can become new doctrine, stronger identity, or a lasting institution

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When the Group Becomes the Whole World: Apocalyptic and High-Control Movements

Part 12 / 26

R371 · Part 12 September 5, 2022 14 min

When the Group Becomes the Whole World: Apocalyptic and High-Control Movements

From Jehovah’s Witnesses and Mormonism to the Unification Church, Jonestown, Waco, Heaven’s Gate, and Aum Shinrikyo—what a “high-control group” is, what apocalypticism is, and why unusual belief does not by itself cause violence

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Series chapter

III. Doctrinal and institutional cases

Comparative studies of Jehovah’s Witnesses, Mormonism, the Unification Church, and Aum Shinrikyo/Aleph apply the same evidentiary framework to different kinds of claims and organizational practices.

From 1914 to “New Light”: Jehovah’s Witnesses, Prophecy, Doctrinal Revision, and Organizational Authority

Part 13 / 26

R372 · Part 13 September 6, 2022 18 min

From 1914 to “New Light”: Jehovah’s Witnesses, Prophecy, Doctrinal Revision, and Organizational Authority

How a small American Bible-study movement became a global religious organization—and what its history reveals about failed predictions, changing rules, and the authority of those who interpret “truth”

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From Golden Plates to a Global Church: Mormonism, Revelation, Historical Change, and Institutional Authority

Part 14 / 26

R373 · Part 14 September 7, 2022 12 min

From Golden Plates to a Global Church: Mormonism, Revelation, Historical Change, and Institutional Authority

What the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints actually teaches, what it acknowledges about its own history, and where the major historical, textual, and institutional questions arise

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The World’s “True Parents”: The Unification Church, Messianic Theology, Mass Weddings, Money, and Political Influence

Part 15 / 26

R374 · Part 15 September 8, 2022 11 min

The World’s “True Parents”: The Unification Church, Messianic Theology, Mass Weddings, Money, and Political Influence

How Sun Myung Moon built a global network of churches, businesses, media organizations, and political projects from a Korean religious movement—and why Japan stripped the organization of its religious-corporation status

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When Apocalypse Becomes a Program: Aum Shinrikyo, Sarin, and the Transformation of a Spiritual Movement into a Terrorist Organization

Part 16 / 26

R375 · Part 16 September 9, 2022 11 min

When Apocalypse Becomes a Program: Aum Shinrikyo, Sarin, and the Transformation of a Spiritual Movement into a Terrorist Organization

From a small yoga group to the chemical attack on the Tokyo subway—and why Aum’s successors still remain under special state surveillance in 2026

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Series chapter

IV. Comparative case studies

Jonestown, Waco, Heaven’s Gate, the Order of the Solar Temple, and NXIVM show different combinations of authority, belonging, conflict, isolation, and control.

Part 17 / 26

R376 · Part 17 September 10, 2022 23 min

Jonestown

From the Promise of Racial Equality to Mass Murder and Suicide

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Part 18 / 26

R377 · Part 18 September 12, 2022 23 min

Waco

The Branch Davidians Between Apocalyptic Theology, a Failed Raid, a 51-Day Siege, and a Deadly Fire

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Part 19 / 26

R378 · Part 19 September 13, 2022 22 min

Heaven’s Gate

When the Body Becomes a “Vehicle,” the World a “Classroom,” and Death “Graduation”

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Part 20 / 26

R379 · Part 20 September 14, 2022 21 min

Order of the Solar Temple

When Initiation Becomes a Hierarchy of Reality and “Transit” Merges Murder with Suicide

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Part 21 / 26

R380 · Part 21 September 15, 2022 21 min

NXIVM

When “Personal Growth” Becomes a Hierarchy of Obedience and a Secret Structure Becomes a System of Coercion

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Series chapter

V. Extended institutional cases

Scientology, Children of God / The Family International, FLDS, Twelve Tribes, and Shincheonji are additional cases examined with the same behavioral and evidentiary standard without automatically equating them.